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for Europe is now at the mercy of Russia in terms of staying warm in the winter, running their kitchen stoves, and keeping the lights on.

No it's not.

That's been repeated so many times that everybody believes it to be true. But it's not.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (jeromeguillet@yahoo.fr) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 06:41:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My reaction too. It was a pointless thing to say within an essay about US foreign policy.

So I can only assume it's a cultural tendency to say "yes things are bad, but poor Old Europe is worse". As if it somehow excuses anything they're doing wrong.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 06:27:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris: That's been repeated so many times that everybody believes it to be true. But it's not.

Dear Professor Krugman,

I am a huge fan, but regarding a statement you made in a recent column, "The Great Illusion" --

After all, Russia has already used gas as a weapon: in 2006, it cut off supplies to Ukraine amid a dispute over prices.

-- please see "Don't Blame Gazprom for Europe's Energy Crunch" by Jérôme Guillet of the European Tribune.

Best regards,
...



Cynicism is intellectual treason.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:47:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Prof Krugman might be bemused to receive your email as the article was writeen by Jim Kunstler.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 10:40:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You might want to follow the link to "The Great Illusion"...

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 10:48:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
well, what is the truth?

i know some gas comes from n. africa, but why are all these pundits so uninformed?

even after years here, i thought it was true, at least mostly.

leave aside the 'weapon' stuff, i don't buy that, they need the money...

The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it. Chinese Proverb.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:56:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Jerome's view is most clearly stated in A pipeline is like a marriage with kids (December 16th, 2005)
Thus Ukraine has never paid for the gas it needs to import from Russia, as it can simply tap the transit gas. That happened in 1992 and 1992, when Russia tries to cut them off and Ukraine reduced transit by the same volume. Since then, both countries have agreed to "swap" transit rights for free deliveries, which is actually a pretty cheap price for Russia to pay to protect exports which make 25% of its hard currency earnings, and, some years, the same proportion of its federal tax income.

Today's noise is an attempt to try to scare off the Europeans again into putting pressure on the Ukrainians to behave, but it stands exactly zero chance of success, because Russia will never cut its gas deliveries to the West. Its credibility as a supplier is too vital an asset for it to endanger it.

That situation shows the interesting thing about pipelines - they create lasting dependencies that force countries to talk and find peaceful agreements, because otherwise both get hurt economically. Pipelines are pretty much like kids in a marriage - they tie you for a long time, force you to talk - but in this case, they cannot even be hurt...

(my emphasis)

Marco might want to direct Krugman to that post, too.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 10:03:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks migeru

that's exactly what i needed to read and understand.

The person who says it cannot be done should not interrupt the person doing it. Chinese Proverb.

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Aug 23rd, 2008 at 05:58:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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