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Well... Does this really mean anything? Speculators are there to provide liquidity to the market, so it's not very strange if they have a large market share. There's a lot more trading of paper oil than real oil.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 12:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gee I dunno.  You figure it out.  

In the face of this:

JIDDAH, Saudi Arabia (AP) -- The U.S. energy secretary said Saturday that insufficient oil production, not financial speculation, was driving soaring crude prices.
[...]
"Market fundamentals show us that production has not kept pace with growing demand for oil, resulting in increasing prices and increasingly volatile prices," Bodman told reporters. "There is no evidence that we can find that speculators are driving futures prices" for oil.

I would think so.

[...as reported in Moon]

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne

by maracatu on Thu Aug 21st, 2008 at 01:39:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Speculators are there to provide liquidity to the market

Um, no, that's the role of market-makers.

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 05:51:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
By adding their capital to the market, they do increase liquidity. They also reduce spreads and strengthen price signals, thereby increasing the efficiency of the market.

:: ::

In theory.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 07:42:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You know your standard theory.

How do you reconcile higher "efficiency" with higher price volatility? The "true" price can't fluctuate as much as the "market" price does, and speculators increase volatility.

So if the tracking error increases, how can you claim price signals are strengthened? Because overshoot is good?

A vivid image of what should exist acts as a surrogate for reality. Pursuit of the image then prevents pursuit of the reality -- John K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 08:04:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I very carefully will ignore your question. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Aug 22nd, 2008 at 09:10:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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